The working hypothesis that provided for a prolonged phase of distribution in the dynamics of stock markets, which have characterized the first part of the summer period as an alternative to a seamless continuation of the bearish phase underway since January, was found to be correct.
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During the past week the primary Western central banks, the FED, the ECB and the SNB, put their cards on the table, openly declaring that they intend to raise their respective key rates well beyond what the international securities markets were already discounting, as evidenced by the decline in equity indices and the increase in bond yields since the beginning of the year.
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The luring distraction constituted by the dramatic ongoing conflict on the eastern borders of Europe continues to divert attention from the real problem that weighs on the prospective dynamics of international securities markets.
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the concomitance between restrictive monetary policies by the main central banks, abnormal increases in the price of fossil fuels with the consequent resurgence of inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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having reached a technical level of oversold, which during the past three sessions has favored a rebound close to technical resistance levels.
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The second year characterized by the Covid-Sars 2 pandemic ended with a particularly favorable trend for the majority of stock indices, unlike that of the previous year, which had been characterized by the outbreak of the virus.
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The working hypothesis presented at the end of the summer, relating to the probability of a modest stock market correction of 5% from the recent highs of the indices, occurred promptly. In fact, for several weeks, the primary indices had consolidated close to the highs of the period without finding new upward stimuli, confirming a technical distribution situation.
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After the brief consolidation phase registered by the world stock indices in September, stocks have regained buyer interest, as evidenced by the S&P 500 index hitting yet another all-time high close to 4700 points, a level that this summer seemed achievable only at the beginning of 2022.
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The stock market movements for the April – September semester, highlight interesting differences in results in the dynamics of the primary world indices, from which it is possible to try to draw indications on the trend of the same during the last part of the year.
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Analyzing the dynamics of the primary international stock market indices during the month of July, there are some discrepancies in trends, the reasons for which deserve further study.
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