On balance, this year has been very positive for international stock markets with almost all the primary indices showing double-digit gains, of which many exceed 20%. But this result does not take into consideration that the fundamental element which characterized the 2018/19 two-year period is the same; represented by the cooling of the global economic situation accentuated by the Sino-US tariff dispute.
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The three principal central banks that in September initiated the fourth QE of the decade, i.e., the FED, BCE and BOJ, have not particularly stigmatized the decision, as they are aware that the financial markets are skeptical about the real impact of these monetary policy measures with respect to the economic dynamics.
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The autumn period coincided with the gradual introduction by the main central banks of the fourth phase of credit monetization, QE, in the decade following the 2008 crisis.
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The continuation during the past weeks of the positive dynamics on most of the main world stock exchanges deserves clarifications aimed at better understanding what could be the market scenario this summer.
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The corrective phase that characterized the dynamics of the primary stock markets during the month of May, induced by investors’ concerns about future economic trends, was partially reversed in the last few weeks.
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The stock markets, during the month of May, remained faithful to the tradition that sees it as a negative period for international stock markets, having registered the first, albeit modest, correction of the indices since the beginning of the year.
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The first quarter ended with an extraordinary positive result for world stock exchanges, in stark contrast to what transpired during the preceding quarter, which has gone down in the annals as the worst quarter since the Great Depression.
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The sudden reversal in monetary policy implemented by the FED at the beginning of January, followed in recent days by a similar statement by the ECB Directorate, leaves little doubt that, at the end of the 1990s what the legendary Governor Greenspan had called his worst nightmare, the “Japanese Syndrome”, has been punctually realized.
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2018 bequeathed on the new year an important undetermined economic scenario, whose solution is the key to interpreting the dynamics of international securities markets in the coming months.
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The last quarter of the year was extremely negative for the global stock markets with the month of December which recorded, for some indices, the worst result of their history, including the Great Depression period.
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