The working hypothesis presented at the end of the summer, relating to the probability of a modest stock market correction of 5% from the recent highs of the indices, occurred promptly. In fact, for several weeks, the primary indices had consolidated close to the highs of the period without finding new upward stimuli, confirming a technical distribution situation.
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After the brief consolidation phase registered by the world stock indices in September, stocks have regained buyer interest, as evidenced by the S&P 500 index hitting yet another all-time high close to 4700 points, a level that this summer seemed achievable only at the beginning of 2022.
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The stock market movements for the April – September semester, highlight interesting differences in results in the dynamics of the primary world indices, from which it is possible to try to draw indications on the trend of the same during the last part of the year.
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Analyzing the dynamics of the primary international stock market indices during the month of July, there are some discrepancies in trends, the reasons for which deserve further study.
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The first half of 2021 for stock markets resulted in a positive and substantially similar trend for European and US stock exchanges, while Asian and, selectively, emerging markets disappointed.
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The technical distribution phase that has characterized the dynamics of the primary world stock markets since last February seems close to transitioning into a medium-sized stock market correction, thanks to a series of monetary and fundamental elements that have evolved over the past few months.
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The second quarter commenced with solid demand for the primary stock markets, validating the short-term upward trend, reconfirmed in the aftermath of the two modest corrections at the end of January and the end of February, whose lows now represent support for their respective indices.
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With two weeks remining until the end of the first quarter for the stock markets, the forecasts at year-end have been substantially respected by the dynamics of the main international indices.
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The new year for stock markets started without significant changes with respect to the underlying trend that characterized the dynamics of the stock markets from last spring.
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The world’s stock markets have concluded a year which will be remembered in economic history textbooks as particularly volatile and characterized by strong geographical disparities.
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