Il combinato disposto di prezzi energetici alle stelle a causa della guerra in Ucraina, di un’abnorme liquidità dopo un decennio di stimoli monetari, dell’interruzione delle filiere di approvvigionamento industriali in relazione ai blocchi Covid e della difficoltà a reperire manodopera a causa dei sussidi a pioggia, ha creato la tempesta perfetta.
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The examination of the short-term trend of the primary world stock indexes which began at the turn of the fourth quarter offers interesting food for thought already in view of 2023.
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The midsummer hypothesis that indicated, as a probable alternative, a sideways trading phase for the indices to correct from technical oversold levels as a result of the first marked selloff that began at the end of 2021, seems confirmed.
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L’ipotesi di lavoro di mezza estate che indicava come alternativa probabile una fase laterale di recupero nei valori degli indici a correzione dell’ipervenduto tecnico causato dalla prima marcata fase di ribasso avviatasi al termine del 2021, risulterebbe confermata.
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The working hypothesis that provided for a prolonged phase of distribution in the dynamics of stock markets, which have characterized the first part of the summer period as an alternative to a seamless continuation of the bearish phase underway since January, was found to be correct.
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L’ipotesi di lavoro che prevedeva una prolungata fase di distribuzione nella dinamica degli indici azionari, che avrebbe caratterizzato la prima parte del periodo estivo in alternativa ad un prosieguo senza soluzione di continuità della fase ribassista in corso da gennaio, è risultata corretta.
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During the past week the primary Western central banks, the FED, the ECB and the SNB, put their cards on the table, openly declaring that they intend to raise their respective key rates well beyond what the international securities markets were already discounting, as evidenced by the decline in equity indices and the increase in bond yields since the beginning of the year.
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The luring distraction constituted by the dramatic ongoing conflict on the eastern borders of Europe continues to divert attention from the real problem that weighs on the prospective dynamics of international securities markets.
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the concomitance between restrictive monetary policies by the main central banks, abnormal increases in the price of fossil fuels with the consequent resurgence of inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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having reached a technical level of oversold, which during the past three sessions has favored a rebound close to technical resistance levels.
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