The year is coming to an end for stock markets with a result not expected at the start of the year, with the majority of the primary world stock indices up by double-digit percentages; in some cases exceeding 20%. Here it has been observed on several occasions that stock market demand would depend mainly on expectations relating to two fundamental data, the dynamics of GDP and the inflation rate, linked to each other through the variable of the cost of money.
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If an alien investor descended on earth and examined the dynamics of the S&P 500 stock index this year, he would not be able to understand the fact that it has risen by almost 20%. In fact, for almost two years the majority of analyzes by experts at a global level have indicated an imminent economic recession induced by the marked increase in the cost of money decided by central banks to combat inflation.
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In September, the primary stock markets initiated a correction phase of between 5% and 10% from mid-summer highs, which was expected by insiders given the over-bought technical situation that has formed since the beginning of the year. In fact, taking the US S&P 500 index as an example, two levels of support were indicated at 4325 and 4200 as objectives for a possible moderate decline.
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The primary international stock market indexes, in essence, continued the lateral movement that began in the aftermath of the mini banking crisis of early March, recording modest trading volumes and low volatility.
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The mini banking crisis that commenced in the USA at the end of the first week of March put an end to any restrictive ambition on the part of the international central banks.
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The alarm, unheeded, was probably sounded last September when the Bank of England had to intervene massively to support the value of its public debt, in free fall due to the government’s foolish fiscal policy decisions, which undermined the system’s liquidity.
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The strategic issue to be explored in order to position oneself adequately in terms of the distribution of securities investments for the current year concerns the possibility or not of a recession.
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The examination of the short-term trend of the primary world stock indexes which began at the turn of the fourth quarter offers interesting food for thought already in view of 2023.
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The examination of the short-term trend of the primary world stock indexes which began at the turn of the fourth quarter offers interesting food for thought already in view of 2023.
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The midsummer hypothesis that indicated, as a probable alternative, a sideways trading phase for the indices to correct from technical oversold levels as a result of the first marked selloff that began at the end of 2021, seems confirmed.
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