For the developed Western economies, this Spring coincided with a phase of unexpected economic stability, which also caught the monetary authorities off guard.
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Switzerland
MARKET OBSERVER – N° 176
The first quarter of 2024 is approaching its end, recording a positive balance confirming that the underlying bullish trend that began in October 2022 remains in place, barring inevitable interruptions, such as that of March 2023, induced by the regional banking crisis in the USA.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 175
For the third consecutive year, the forecasts relating to the prospective dynamics of the international securities markets cannot be deduced from the possibility or otherwise of an economic recession starting during the year. This hypothesis had already been aired by experts in 2022 and reiterated at the level of a generalized consensus in 2023, only to prove fallacious until now.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 174
The year is coming to an end for stock markets with a result not expected at the start of the year, with the majority of the primary world stock indices up by double-digit percentages; in some cases exceeding 20%. Here it has been observed on several occasions that stock market demand would depend mainly on expectations relating to two fundamental data, the dynamics of GDP and the inflation rate, linked to each other through the variable of the cost of money.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 173
If an alien investor descended on earth and examined the dynamics of the S&P 500 stock index this year, he would not be able to understand the fact that it has risen by almost 20%. In fact, for almost two years the majority of analyzes by experts at a global level have indicated an imminent economic recession induced by the marked increase in the cost of money decided by central banks to combat inflation.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 172
In September, the primary stock markets initiated a correction phase of between 5% and 10% from mid-summer highs, which was expected by insiders given the over-bought technical situation that has formed since the beginning of the year. In fact, taking the US S&P 500 index as an example, two levels of support were indicated at 4325 and 4200 as objectives for a possible moderate decline.
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MARKET OBSERVER N° 171
The summer period for the international securities markets saw the issue of the inverted bond yield curve come home to roost. In this forum, already last autumn, it was observed that considering an economic recession to be imminent utilizing the slope of the long-term interest rate curve risked being misleading, as it is almost totally conditioned by the discount component of the duration, which is strongly negative.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 169
The primary international stock market indexes, in essence, continued the lateral movement that began in the aftermath of the mini banking crisis of early March, recording modest trading volumes and low volatility.
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MARKET OBSERVER N° 168
The mini banking crisis that commenced in the USA at the end of the first week of March put an end to any restrictive ambition on the part of the international central banks.
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MARKET OBSERVER – N° 167
The alarm, unheeded, was probably sounded last September when the Bank of England had to intervene massively to support the value of its public debt, in free fall due to the government’s foolish fiscal policy decisions, which undermined the system’s liquidity.
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