The dynamics of international financial markets since the beginning of April have shown highly anomalous characteristics that lead one to believe that a totally new phase has begun in the correlations between stock markets, fixed income, currencies and safe haven assets.
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The recent, rapid decline in yields offered by ten-year US government bonds deserves further investigation as it could be a useful indicator on the economic outlook, not only in the US.
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The working hypothesis that the stock market would open the new year with a lateral movement of the indices is confirmed for the US stock market while the European markets have so far logged a decidedly positive trend.
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With only a few days before the official inauguration of the new US President, several economic and geopolitical factors have already begun to discount the foreseeable strategic changes of the new executive.
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As a little over a month has passed since the victory of the Republican candidate, D. Trump, in the US…
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Trascorso poco più di un mese dalla vittoria alle elezioni presidenziali USA del candidato repubblicano, D. Trump, si sono già concretizzati diversi elementi valutativi dai quali si possa provare a trarre indicazioni utili sul nuovo corso che caratterizzerà l’economia e quindi il mercato finanziario non solo statunitense.
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The technical accumulation phase of shares of the primary stock markets that began after the “flash crash” of early August, gave way to the subsequent recovery of prices in October, characterized by a certain gradualness, also because the elements of uncertainty, especially geopolitical, abound.
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This autumn the stock markets are starting off conditioned by various factors of uncertainty ranging from the imminent US presidential election, to the next monetary policy decisions of central banks, to the real stability of the economic situation on opposite sides of the Atlantic and to the prospective dynamics of the dollar exchange rate, elements that are partly linked to each other.
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The start of the summer for stock markets coincided with a phase of technical distribution on the primary indices, culminating in a modest correction that affected the entire month of July, quantifiable in a general correction of stocks in the order of about 5%.
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L’avvio dell’estate borsistica ha coinciso con una fase di distribuzione tecnica dei principali indici, culminata in una modesta correzione che ha interessato tutto il mese di luglio, quantificabile in un appesantimento generale delle quote nell’ordine di 5 % circa.
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